Yesterday, Sunday—that is, today as I write this for you—the government held an event to celebrate the second anniversary of its electoral victory. I assume that, like her predecessor and political chief, President Sheinbaum offered a reheated version of the morning press conferences, which are little more than a string of falsehoods seasoned with attacks on her critics. As has been the case since the previous administration, these events are held despite not being permitted by law, which, as you know, is treated as little more than a suggestion.
She likely spoke on Sunday about how well the economy is doing, as she had described it a few days earlier through twelve different points: nine half-truths, three intentions, and only one thing that is actually true—though it is close to ceasing to be so: the increase in household income for many families, thanks to minimum-wage hikes and the distribution of public money. The latter has already reached its limit, and gone beyond it, putting the country’s credit rating at risk.
To buy votes, the government reduced agency budgets to the bare minimum. Combined with the evident incompetence of those running them, this has destroyed administrative capacity: there are no medicines, no hospital care, education is in ruins, infrastructure is falling apart, public security cannot be guaranteed, among hundreds of other examples. Even so, the deficit has not been brought under control, and if it declined between 2024 and 2025, it was only because of a significant reduction in public investment. For that reason, almost everyone is now convinced that Mexico has entered a debt spiral that cannot be contained.
In the labor market, the minimum-wage increases that we all initially welcomed were also taken too far. There was room to double the wage level that existed in 2016, and that had effectively been achieved by 2023. But then came the election, and prudence disappeared. The increases since then have been reflected in weaker job creation. Depending on the indicator used, employment is either stagnant (according to IMSS data) or already contracting (according to ENOE and the occupied personnel index for economic sectors). Growth in workers’ real earnings is following the same path: it is steadily slowing and will very likely turn negative within a few months.
It is striking that nearly half of all workers earn less than the minimum wage. Once again, as in the 1970s, the minimum wage is not truly a minimum. Since this can occur only in the informal sector, it means that eight or nine out of every ten informal workers fall into that category. Add to that the fact that virtually all jobs created during the past year have been informal, and the situation becomes clear: the dream of redistribution has come to an end.
This is one facet of reality that we already knew would eventually strike the exclusionary, undisciplined, voracious, and incompetent movement that has entrenched itself in power. There was always an economic limit, and they have now reached it.
A second facet was equally evident given the nature of the movement itself: internal fractures were bound to emerge. Because Andy inherited nothing, because the allies are never satisfied, because everyone believes it is their turn. Finally, the third threat from reality was the mud from which they built their brick. Agreements with criminal organizations were always going to sink the experiment sooner or later.
I suppose that in her report-disguised-as-a-morning-press-conference, President Sheinbaum insisted that millions have been lifted out of poverty, assured the public that unity prevails within the movement, and neglected to mention Rocha Moya and the Ten from Sinaloa, the other lists, or the collapse of the Havana–Caracas–Madrid axis. But by the time you read this, you probably already know what she said. I can only imagine.