Since a little more than a year ago, when the dance with Trump began—with the imposition of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China—uncertainty has dominated the global economy. With Liberation Day (April 2, 2025), the situation reached levels of terror in financial markets, prompting Trump to reverse course a week later. Since then, it has been very difficult to know exactly how much the United States is actually charging in tariffs, although institutions such as the Budget Lab at Yale University have tried to track both what is announced and what actually occurs at U.S. customs.
After that Liberation Day, it seemed that Mexico had ended up slightly better off than others overall, although some sectors were severely hit. With the reversal ordered by the U.S. Supreme Court against part of the tariffs (those Trump imposed citing an economic emergency), the situation changed and we ended up somewhat worse. Now, with the war in Iran, the situation must once again be reassessed, because if oil prices rise, we lose. It should not be forgotten that we produce a little more than one and a half million barrels per day but consume three—already transformed into gasoline, diesel, and other products.
However, we are already in the process of redefining the USMCA, forced by Trump to do so through bilateral meetings. Considering the U.S. security strategy—which states that it will concentrate on this hemisphere—there is also some hope that this could become an opportunity for Mexico. The creation of the Shield of the Americas, which we discussed on Monday, seems more like a threat, and Trump does not easily separate issues.
In any case, we still have the problem of electricity shortages, which prevent attracting significant new investment. To this has been added greater internal uncertainty, which by the end of last year resulted in a decline in net foreign investment. Meanwhile, the transport equipment industry is struggling. Light vehicles (the automotive industry) have lost export momentum and experienced a contraction in production in February. Heavy vehicles have been a tragedy since last year.
Formal employment (IMSS), reported this week, shows very small annual growth—only 0.4%—but 86% of that new employment occurs in the commerce sector. Considering that retail trade has grown mainly due to gasoline sales, and that the number of companies in the sector is not increasing, this employment growth does not bode well for future figures. Manufacturing and mining continue losing jobs. Each month there are also fewer employers overall, especially firms with up to five workers.
Given the greater global uncertainty and the internal uncertainty created by the struggle for power, what is somewhat surprising is that the economy is not in worse condition. Inertia continues to sustain us, although after seven years of this situation the signs of deterioration are very clear—both in infrastructure and in access to goods and services.
However, there is no sign that either of these sources of uncertainty will change in the short term. The swings in global markets at the start of this week, reacting to rumors and statements, along with Trump’s hostility toward Mexico, suggest we will not find calm on that front. The government’s insistence on electoral reform suggests we will not find it domestically either.
All that remains is to hope that the resilience shown so far can continue—and that we do not experience what Hemingway supposedly said about bankruptcy: “gradually, and then suddenly.”