Swamp
El Financiero, February 21st, 2025
Today, you will learn the preliminary data on economic growth for the past year. It will be an adjustment of the initial estimate published nearly a month ago and will remain provisional for more than a year, as usual. Based on other indicators, we can confirm a contraction in the last quarter, with annual growth slightly above 1%.
For 2025, the Bank of Mexico has revised its projections, cutting its original estimate in half. Now, they expect a 0.6% growth rate for this year. I assume that after today's report and Banxico's revision, most analysts will adjust their forecasts downward, aligning with what Banamex has been predicting for months: 0.2%. This column sees a more likely outcome of zero—assuming global conditions and U.S. relations do not deteriorate further.
On that note, the proverbial bull in a china shop continues its rampage, and his well-known admiration for Putin has led him to make a potentially disastrous mistake. Trump—just to be clear about which bull—has decided that he alone should negotiate with Putin to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine, excluding both this country and, of course, Europe. He summoned the Russians to Saudi Arabia but barred a delegation from Zelensky, whom he now even calls a dictator, demanding that Ukraine hold elections so he can be replaced. He is merely echoing Putin, his master for decades, as we have discussed many times before.
By backing Russia’s invasion and Ukraine’s loss of territory, Trump is opening the door to widespread geopolitical instability. If such actions are deemed acceptable, then a Turkish invasion of Syria would be inevitable, as would the complete disappearance of Palestine, China’s takeover of Taiwan, or the redrawing of borders in the Sahel and even in the already war-torn Congo. In his limited imagination, he is probably fantasizing about acquiring Greenland, seizing the Panama Canal, or developing the Mediterranean Riviera in what we currently know as Gaza.
As you might expect, this is far more serious than his endless threats of a trade war, which he never follows through on. Future tariffs, announced sine die, have already exasperated the markets. The dollar is losing ground, while gold is rising—clear signals that Trump does not instill fear, but growing uncertainty.
Within the U.S., the dismantling of public administration is already generating more backlash than support, adding to the frustration over persistent inflation and an economy that shows no strength in its industrial sector. A significant portion of his executive orders is already being blocked by the courts, and the "king"—as Trump now refers to himself—no longer enjoys enough popular support to bend the judiciary to his will.
The bull on this side of the border, however, managed to secure some backing, which he turned into a fraudulent majority through a coup, leaving the country mired in a quagmire from which neither stability nor confidence will emerge. And just as we are stuck in it, the U.S. has designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. This is not a helping hand to pull us out—it’s stones that could sink us even faster.
Amid this landscape of apparent destruction, there are still efforts to build a better future. This weekend, Somos México will hold 36 assemblies across 19 states in an attempt to establish itself as a viable alternative to the barren wasteland we face today. You can find details at somosmx.org.mx—in case you, too, prefer a different future.