Trump arrives

Context Analysis, January 19th, 2025

Tomorrow, Monday, Donald J. Trump will assume the presidency of the United States. As expected, he is already turning it into a business opportunity (with a cryptocurrency whose value he has inflated). Before this, his victory shielded him from having to face penalties for crimes he had already been found guilty of, as well as from the consequences of the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, which he incited and could have branded him a traitor. This is a prime example of how difficult it is to ensure the law applies equally to everyone.

Of course, this isn’t the only example. History is filled with similar cases, and one of the most recent and costly ones was Joe Biden’s blanket pardon of his son, Hunter. Although the crimes he was proven guilty of were minor, the risk that Trump might dig deeper, especially into potential dealings in Eastern Europe, led Biden to shield him. Again, nothing new.

For the more cynical among us, what happens in the United States serves as a broad excuse to pardon politicians everywhere—particularly in one’s own country. I believe there are degrees to this, though Trump’s behavior certainly challenges faith in the rule of law.

It’s worth remembering that those who pursue politics don’t do so out of pure love for the people. You’ll recall that humans, like all living beings, are driven by the need to survive and reproduce, which largely guides our actions. Like other primates, in addition to these two basic needs, we also require group belonging and aim to climb as high as possible within that group. This need for belonging and status is critical and can easily spiral out of control, causing severe emotional imbalances.

Status—how others perceive us—is no trivial matter. While we are told from childhood not to care about what others think, the truth is, it matters greatly. When others regard us favorably within a group, it becomes significantly easier to survive and reproduce. This is precisely why people strive to elevate their status, whether in private organizations or in the public sector. A company director not only earns more money but also enjoys many perks that place them in a better position: cars, drivers, offices, even planes. Both money and these benefits undoubtedly contribute to reproductive success—or at least the attempt.

For this reason, the common belief that one can find truly altruistic politicians is not so straightforward. Again, there’s a wide range, but all politicians seek to improve their status. Some reach pathological levels in this pursuit, though not all.

On the other hand, success in politics depends on the ability to conceal one’s intentions. Distracting attention, deceiving, and lying are essential tools for advancement. I learned this quite late, but it’s the same principle that explains success in sports. In some sports, you compete against yourself, but in those where you compete against others, the ability to deceive is crucial. If you doubt this, spend today watching American football or the Australian Open and observe how players constantly feign moves to confuse their opponents.

Politics works exactly the same way, and not only in democracies. A simple review of the actions of great politicians, cardinals, popes, or kings shows how their success often depended on making their enemies expect different behavior.

Combining this with the above, we conclude that the most successful politicians (whether in the private or public sector) must be highly interested in status and skilled at deception. This doesn’t mean all are narcissistic and Machiavellian, but they all have a bit of it.

Recently, unfortunately, we’ve witnessed how successful politicians tend to take these traits to pathological levels. They are unwell, though no one says so because none of them has undergone professional evaluation. This applies to López Obrador, Trump, Bukele, Milei, Bolsonaro, Orbán, Erdogan, Modi, Kaczyński, Putin, and Xi. All have an excessively high opinion of themselves, likely pathological, and all have been very skilled at deception. The first group deceives voters, while Putin and Xi deceive their nations’ power groups. Don’t forget both purged those groups, and not peacefully.

What matters most to us now is identifying Trump’s actions, associating each decision with its potential consequences, and finding ways to mitigate the impact, avoid it if possible, or, in the worst-case scenario, minimize losses.

It’s said that tomorrow he will sign around 100 executive orders, likely including tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products, possibly on Chinese goods, or maybe on everyone. There will also likely be decrees promoting the deportation of people illegally in the U.S. In both cases, there are legal mechanisms to reduce costs, but not eliminate them entirely. Consequently, it would be wise to already have a strategy in place to minimize losses, such as immediately negotiating reciprocal tariffs on specific products or preparing resources to handle deported individuals who are Mexican nationals (e.g., shelters, transportation) while preventing the entry of non-Mexican deportees.

There are also indications he will designate Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). Many Mexicans support this decision, given that the Mexican government has not confronted them effectively under López Obrador—or before him, when confrontations didn’t yield reductions. Others believe this decision might not benefit Mexico, as it may not lead to direct action but could heavily disrupt the national financial system, from remittances to stricter due diligence requirements.

In Mexico, we’ve failed to grasp that organized crime is deeply intertwined with the formal economy. This has been true since the Guadalajara Cartel in the 1970s and remains so today, particularly in northern Mexico and cities like Guadalajara and Mexico City. Addressing these criminals seriously would implicate countless people who neither bear arms nor sell drugs but play functional roles, such as money launderers, business partners, and suppliers.

A violent confrontation, such as the ongoing Sinaloa conflict involving mixed armed forces from Mexico and the U.S., risks becoming another Gaza. Israel’s major challenge is distinguishing between Hamas terrorists, their collaborators, supportive civilians, and genuinely uninvolved civilians. The same would occur in Mexico in an open, direct conflict.

We saw a glimpse of this during Calderón’s presidency when the government directly confronted cartels. Critics emerged from all sides, some merely as political opponents of Calderón or the PAN, but many due to ties to criminal groups. When cartels weakened from this confrontation and fragmented (in 2008), violence spiked dramatically. Since then, Calderón has been blamed, but we must understand the scale and complexity of the issue.

As the situation began to calm, a change in government caused a resurgence, especially after the Federal Police’s presence was reduced and dismantled under Gobernación, whose leader aimed to become president. López Obrador inherited this resurgence and began concealing homicides—some labeled as “unknown causes,” others recorded as disappearances. This practice has intensified under his administration. Currently, there are about 80 daily homicides and over 40 disappearances, totaling 120 lives lost daily.

López Obrador’s relationship with cartels remains unclear. Witnesses who accused García Luna of taking cartel money also accused López Obrador. His frequent visits to Badiraguato and his handling of Mayo Zambada’s extradition raise questions.

This situation also calls for a response strategy to reduce, eliminate, or minimize impacts.

However, note the differing interests here: national interests versus López Obrador’s inner circle. For Mexico, it would be disgraceful if a former president were proven to have ties to organized crime. Beyond the shame, justice must prevail. For his inner circle, this could mean the end of their freedom, wealth, or even lives. This is the dilemma Venezuela faces today, awaiting its own decree tomorrow.

Today’s discussion has been more exploratory because, like you, I don’t know exactly what Trump will sign tomorrow. Once we know, we can analyze with more clarity. For now, I hope to have provided a broad perspective on what could very likely be a global transformation.